Mathematical Modeling of the COVID-19 Epidemic: Methods, Scenarios, and Practical Applicability

https://dx.doi.org/10.51350/zdravkg2026.1.3.18.148.153

Mathematical Modeling of the COVID-19 Epidemic: Methods, Scenarios, and Practical Applicability

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Abstract About the authors References

Abstract

Introduction. The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for rapid managerial decision-making in a context of high uncertainty. One of the key tools in this regard has been mathematical modeling, which enables interpretation of the current epidemiological situation and projection of possible future scenarios. Objective. To systematize existing approaches to mathematical modeling of COVID-19 and evaluate their relevance for resource-constrained regions. Materials and Methods. The article presents a structured literature review of contemporary approaches to mathematical modeling of the COVID-19 epidemic. It examines classical compartmental models (SIR, SEIR and their modifications), time-series models (ARIMA, SSA), hybrid models incorporating artificial intelligence elements, as well as agent-based and stochastic models. Results. The applicability of these models has been analyzed across various epidemiological contexts, including resource-limited countries such as the Kyrgyz Republic. Special attention is given to the application of the SEIR model within the CoMo Consortium platform. The main advantages and limitations of different models are described, and recommendations for their adaptation to local conditions are provided. Conclusion. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, the integration of modeling with epidemiological surveillance, real-time statistics, and risk assessment became particularly important, enabling timely adaptation of intervention strategies to the rapidly evolving situation.

About the authors

Дооронбекова Aйжан Жакыпбековна, соискатель, научный сотрудник, Центра анализа, управления рисками общественному здравоохранению и профилактики заболеваний Национального института общественного здоровья МЗ, Бишкек, Кыргызская Республика

Dooronbekova Aizhan Zhakypbekovna, applicant, research fellow of the Center for Analysis and Management of Public Health Risks National Institute of Public Health of the Ministry of Health, Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic

Дооронбекова Айжан Жакыпбековна, талапкер, Саламаттыкты сактоо министрлигинин Коомдук саламаттыкты сактоо боюнча улуттук институтунун Коомдук саламаттыкты сактоо тобокелдиктерин талдоо жана башкаруу борборунун илимий кызматкери, Бишкек, Кыргыз Республикасы

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